Kamala Harris's Chance to Win?

By Amy Zhao

· News

Although Biden has firmly stated that he will not withdraw from the election, recent polls indicate that Kamala Harris might perform better than Biden against Trump, the Republican candidate. A CNN poll from July 2 shows Trump leading Biden by six points, 49% to 43%. Kamala Harris trails Trump as well, 47% to 45%, within the margin of error. Independents prefer Kamala Harris over Trump, 43% to 40%, and moderate voters from both parties favor her 51% to 39%.

Internal polling from the Biden campaign shows Kamala Harris has similar odds to Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters supporting her versus 48% for Trump. Key Democrats, including Representatives Jim Clyburn, Gregory Meeks, and Summer Lee, believe Kamala Harris is the best option if Biden steps aside. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has privately indicated the same to lawmakers.

Kamala Harris, 59, a former US senator and California attorney-general, would make history as the first woman President of the United States if she were nominated by her party and won the November 5 election. She is also the first African American and Asian person to serve as vice-president.

Win McNamee/Getty

Win McNamee/Getty Images

Kamala Harris has become the leading voice on reproductive rights within the Biden administration since the Supreme Court repealed women’s constitutional right to abortion in 2022. Some Democrats believe she could energize groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has waned, including Black voters, young voters, and those critical of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Former Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan wrote in an op-ed that Kamala Harris would energize the coalition's Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members, as well as the youth. He also suggested that suburban women from both parties might be more comfortable with her than with Trump or Biden.

Although Kamala Harris’ public stance on Israel is identical to Biden’s, she was the first senior US leader to call for a ceasefire in March. Abbas Alawieh of the "Uncommitted" movement, which withheld votes for Biden due to his support of Israel, stated that simply changing the candidate does not address the movement's concerns.

If Biden steps aside, other Democrats might compete for the nomination. Choosing another candidate over Kamala Harris could risk losing support from many Black voters, who were crucial to Biden’s 2020 win. Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, emphasized that overlooking Kamala Harris could severely impact the Democratic Party’s base.

 

Sources

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/could-kamala-harris-beat-donald-trump-in-novembers-presidential-race

Photo: Pool/Getty Images